Shortage of Professional Drivers: Myth or Reality?

This article 

Addresses a deeply affecting issue of the transportation industry in Romania and Europe: the shortage of professional drivers. The title "Shortage of Professional Drivers: Myth or Reality?" reflects a fundamental question underlying the discussion: is this shortage a subjective perception or an undeniable reality?

The number of professional truck drivers in Europe and Romania

Europe:

The exact estimation of the number of professional drivers in Europe is challenging due to the lack of centralized data. However, various sources provide estimates ranging from 2.2 to 3.6 million.

• European Commission: In 2021, the European Commission estimated approximately 2.8 million professional drivers in the EU. [1]
• IRU (International Road Transport Union): In 2022, IRU estimated the number of 3.6 million professional drivers in Europe. [2]

Romania:

In Romania, the number of professional drivers is estimated to be around 350,000.

• Romanian Road Authority (ARR): According to ARR data from 2023, there were 357,933 valid category C/E driving licenses in Romania. [3]

Insights into the Professional Driver Shortage

In a comprehensive analysis of the shortage of professional drivers, two internationally renowned entities stand out for their contribution: Eurostat and IRU

Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union, positions itself as a cornerstone of statistical knowledge at the European level, meticulously monitoring labor market trends and providing detailed reports that dissect the shortage of drivers, its underlying causes, and the significant economic impact felt.

On the other hand, the IRU, the International Road Transport Union, assumes the role of advocating for the interests of transport companies globally, offering a dynamic and real perspective from the field and sounding the alarm about the severity of the driver shortage issue.

The close collaboration between Eurostat and the IRU gives rise to remarkable synergy, resulting in a comprehensive picture of the driver shortage. This holistic perspective facilitates a profound understanding of the extent and impact of the issue, providing a solid basis for the formulation of concrete recommendations and the development of effective policies and well-founded strategies to address the shortage of professional drivers.

Truck Driver Shortage 

According to the IRU (International Road Transport Union), in 2023, Europe is already facing a shortage of over 400,000 drivers.

The situation is alarming and has significant consequences for the European economy. The lack of drivers leads to increased transportation costs, delays in delivering goods, and even shortages of certain products. The IRU predicts that the shortage will increase to 745,000 vacancies by 2028, representing 17% of the total positions needed in Europe.

In Romania, the shortage of professional drivers has reached alarming levels, with demand significantly exceeding the available labor supply. Recent statistical data shows that Romania is facing a shortage of approximately 40,000 drivers, representing around 10% of the total needed.

Romania ranks slightly above the European average in terms of the severity of the shortage. According to the IRU, the deficit as a percentage of the total needed is 10% in Romania, compared to 9.7% at the European level.

The shortage of professional drivers is not uniformly distributed; certain regions, especially the most urbanized and industrialized ones, may suffer from a more acute lack of drivers than others. [4]

Market trends

The Clevgo Driver team has noticed an interesting trend in recent interactions with their clients in the road transport industry. More and more carriers are stating that they no longer face major difficulties in recruiting professional drivers, moreover, some of them believe that the shortage is no longer a real problem, questioning the deficit of approximately 400,000 drivers reported by Eurostat and IRU.

The market speaks: What do the carriers tell us?

According to a recent survey, only 39% of carriers currently face driver-related labor issues, a significant decrease compared to 75% who reported similar difficulties a year ago.

Is this shortage a subjective perception or an undeniable reality?

Reality is undeniable. Perception, however, can be false and often carriers' analyses are done in the short term, which can lead to erroneous conclusions. A more accurate analysis of driver needs should be done at the end of each year to effectively plan human resources for the following year.

Alexandru Borza, Senior Fleet Manager & Drivers Capacity ,H. Essers 

Mr. Borza recently pointed out, in an interview with Clevgo Driver, the erroneous perception regarding the current driver shortage. He highlighted the tendency of carriers to think short-term, ignoring the complex context and factors that contributed to the creation of a "bubble" in the road transport industry. This apparent state of prosperity and general satisfaction is considered dangerous, similar to an economic "bubble" that can burst at any time.

Carriers who do not anticipate the end of this "bubble" and do not implement contingency plans for a return to normal will be exposed to major difficulties. Maintaining the current level of activity or expanding business operations will become a significant challenge.

To avoid the negative consequences of the "bubble" bursting, a proactive approach is recommended on the part of carriers. They should conduct a detailed analysis of the current context, taking into account the factors influencing the driver shortage. It is also essential to develop contingency plans that allow for adaptation to a return to normal in the market.

Clevgo Driver emphasizes the importance of strategic planning and adaptation to the ever-changing reality of the transportation industry. The platform offers efficient solutions to facilitate the quick and easy finding of qualified personnel, contributing to combating the driver shortage and maintaining a stable business environment.

Factors hiding the true situation from carriers 

• The decline in European economic growth: The destabilization of the road transport industry due to the economic slowdown has decreased demand for transport services. 

The global economic slowdown in 2022 and early 2023, triggered by the war in Ukraine, high inflation, and tighter monetary policies, significantly impacted the transport industry. Soaring energy prices and rising interest rates curbed consumption and investment, resulting in reduced transport demand. Global GDP growth plummeted from 6.1% in 2021 to 2.3% in 2023, while the trucking industry's revenue growth also slowed down from 6.0% in 2022 to 4.2% in 2023. Although headline inflation has eased from its peak in October 2022, core inflation remains persistent in many economies. While inflation is expected to gradually decline in 2023 and 2024, it will likely stay above central bank targets in most countries.

In Europe, the GDP growth for 2023 was a mere 0.6%, a significant drop from the 3.6% in 2022. This decline, coupled with high consumer prices and stagnant wages, has eroded consumers' purchasing power, reducing demand for goods transport. This downward trend is evident in the falling road freight rates since late 2022, with Upply's European road freight rate spot index for Q2 2023 marking its third consecutive month of decline, down 7.6 points year on year. [5]

• Bankruptcies of small transport companies: Fierce competition and difficult economic conditions have led to the bankruptcy of many small carriers. Drivers from these companies have migrated to larger firms, which have managed to maintain better stability in the market.

The bankruptcies of small transport companies are an increasingly frequent reality in the transport industry, caused by a series of interconnected factors such as fierce competition, difficult economic conditions, limited bargaining power, lack of resources, and changes in customer demand.

These bankruptcies have multiple negative consequences, including the migration of drivers to large companies, market concentration, and a negative impact on the local economy.

However, this factors are superficial and do not reflect the long-term reality of the driver shortage:

1. The number of drivers has not increased: Although some drivers have migrated to larger companies, the total number of professional drivers has not increased. The demand for qualified drivers remains high, and the shortage persists.
2. Imminent economic recovery: Europe forecasts an economic recovery starting next year. This will lead to an increase in demand for transport services, again accentuating the driver shortage.
   
3. Lack of long-term solutions: The temporary decrease in pressure does not solve the fundamental problem of the lack of attractiveness of the driving profession. The lack of investment in education and vocational training, difficult working conditions, and relatively low wages will continue to discourage young people from choosing this career.

Conclusion 

Lipsa șoferilor este o problemă reală și complexă, care necesită o abordare proactivă și colaborativă din partea tuturor actorilor implicați. Prin investiții în soluții tehnologice inovatoare și o planificare strategică atentă, putem depăși această provocare și construi un viitor sustenabil pentru industria transporturilor.

Clevgo Driver se dedică sprijinirii companiilor de transport în eforturile lor de a combate deficitul de șoferi și de a asigura succesul pe termen lung al afacerilor lor.

References 

[1] - "Almost 29 transport workers per 1 000 people in the EU", article published by Eurostat, highlighting the density of the workforce in the transport sector within the European Union.

[2], [4], [5] - "Driver Shortage Global Report 2022: Summary", providing a comprehensive analysis of the global crisis of professional driver shortage, including its causes and impact on the industry.

[3] - "ARR Info Request Programme", a tool of the Romanian Road Authority (ARR) used for the collection and analysis of relevant data from the transport industry, contributing to informed decision-making and the development of appropriate policies in this sector.